Miami: what is left to sell?
ISG Miami has recently released a new report analyzing Miami’s current condo cycle and predicting what is yet to come. The study shows us developers have 2,101 new development apartments left to sell from this cycle, of those, 587 units were delivered, 1,331 are under construction right now, and 183 are in the pre-construction phase.
Our current cycle began in 2012, and it is essential to note that the pipeline of new units excludes projects that have been filed in the last seven years and also does not include units available in the MLS.
“We’re calling this the supply shock,” said Craig Studnicky, CEO of ISG World, which authored the report.
From Coconut Grove to Fort Lauderdale and east of I-95, out of almost 20,000 units in this cycle’s pipeline, 89% were presold, an average of 1,340 units sold per year during the last three years.
Groundbreakings climaxed in 2014 at 23, and have been dropping on an annual basis, with only 11 in 2017 and just four last year. Even though developers are quiet about when they plan to release new projects, experts are predicting 2020, 2021, or 2022 will be the beginning of a new cycle.
Now let’s take a look at what is available according to the report.
Ugo Colombo’s luxury tower Brickell Flatiron, current under construction, is 90 percent sold. The 64-story project located at 1001 South Miami Avenue, with 527-unit, began sells in April 2014 and has newly reduced its deposit conditions after it received a Fannie Mae conditional support.
Una Residences, with 135-units, started sales approximately a year ago and is 45 percent presold. The building, planned for 175 Southeast 25th Road in Brickell, intends to break ground between this year or 2020. Vlad Doronin from OKO Group, a Russian billionaire, and investment firm Cain International are developing the project.
Low sales have be seen in downtown Miami with projects that haven’t broken ground yet, or that started sales at the end of the cycle. Aston Martin Residences, for example, is 48 percent presold out of 390 units; Okan Tower is 56 percent sold out of 149 units. YotelPad Miami, which broke ground at the beginning of the year, is 74 percent sold.
In Miami Beach, Bay Harbor Islands, Surfside, Bal Harbor, Sunny Isles Beach, Hallandale Beach, and Hollywood, or the Beaches market as defined in the study, projects such as 57 Ocean (18 percent sold) and 2000 Ocean (15 percent sold) announced lower sales than their competitors. Shahab Karmely of KAR Properties revealed 2000 Ocean in the summer of 2018 while 57 Ocean, of Multiplan Real Estate Management, led by Brazilian billionaire Jose Isaac Péres, began sales in December.
Rendering of the Una Residences.